Longitudinal trajectories of pneumonia lesions and lymphocyte counts associated with disease severity among convalescent COVID-19 patients: a group-based multi-trajectory analysis.

BACKGROUND: To explore the long-term trajectories considering pneumonia volumes and lymphocyte counts with individual data in COVID-19. METHODS: A cohort of 257 convalescent COVID-19 patients (131 male and 126 females) were included. Group-based multi-trajectory modelling was applied to identify different trajectories in terms of pneumonia lesion percentage and lymphocyte counts covering the time from onset to post-discharge follow-ups. We studied the basic characteristics and disease severity associated with the trajectories. RESULTS: We characterised four distinct trajectory subgroups. (1) Group 1 (13.9%), pneumonia increased until a peak lesion percentage of 1.9% (IQR 0.7-4.4) before absorption. The slightly decreased lymphocyte rapidly recovered to the top half of the normal range. (2) Group 2 (44.7%), the peak lesion percentage was 7.2% (IQR 3.2-12.7). The abnormal lymphocyte count restored to normal soon. (3) Group 3 (26.0%), the peak lesion percentage reached 14.2% (IQR 8.5-19.8). The lymphocytes continuously dropped to 0.75 × 109/L after one day post-onset before slowly recovering. (4) Group 4 (15.4%), the peak lesion percentage reached 41.4% (IQR 34.8-47.9), much higher than other groups. Lymphopenia was aggravated until the lymphocytes declined to 0.80 × 109/L on the fourth day and slowly recovered later. Patients in the higher order groups were older and more likely to have hypertension and diabetes (all P values < 0.05), and have more severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide new insights to understand the heterogeneous natural courses of COVID-19 patients and the associations of distinct trajectories with disease severity, which is essential to improve the early risk assessment, patient monitoring, and follow-up schedule.

Evaluation of antiviral therapies for coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia in Shanghai, China.

The aim of our study was to evaluate the therapeutic effect of antiviral drugs on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. Patients confirmed with COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled and divided into seven groups according to the treatment option. Information including age, sex, and duration from illness onset to admission, clinical manifestations, and laboratory data at admission, and length of hospital stay were evaluated. The chest computed tomography (CT) imaging obtained at admission and after a 5-day treatment cycle were assessed. The clinical symptoms and laboratory tests at discharge were also assessed. At admission, no significant differences were found among the groups, including the duration from illness onset to admission, clinical symptoms, and main laboratory results. No significant differences were found among the groups in terms of the proportion of patients with pneumonia resolution (P = .151) after treatment or the length of hospital stay (P = .116). At discharge, 7 of 184 (4%) patients had a mild cough while their other symptoms had disappeared, and the proportion of patients with abnormal liver function and with increased leukocytes, neutrophils or erythrocyte sedimentation rate among the 184 patients were close to those at admission. According to the results, the inclusion of antiviral drugs in therapeutic regimens based on symptomatic treatment had no significant additional impact on the improvement in COVID-19 patients. In addition, the results of chest CT imaging, clinical manifestations, and laboratory tests at discharge were not completely consistent.

Preliminary investigation of relationship between clinical indicators and CT manifestation patterns of COVID-19 pneumonia improvement.

BACKGROUND: To retrospectively evaluate several clinical indicators related to the improvement of COVID-19 pneumonia on CT. METHODS: A total of 62 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were included. The CT scores based on lesion patterns and distributions in serial CT were investigated. The improvement and deterioration of pneumonia was assessed based on the changes of CT scores. Grouped by using the temperature, serum lymphocytes and high sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP) on admission respectively, the CT scores on admission, at peak time and at discharge were evaluated. Correlation analysis was carried out between the time to onset of pneumonia resolution on CT images and the recovery time of temperature, negative conversion of viral nucleic acid, serum lymphocytes and hs-CRP. RESULTS: The CT scores of the fever group and lymphopenia group were significantly higher than those of normal group on admission, at peak time and at discharge; and the CT scores of normal hs-CRP group were significantly lower than those of the elevated hs-CRP group at peak time and at discharge (P all<0.05). The time to onset of pneumonia resolution on CT image was moderately correlated with negative conversion duration of viral nucleic acid (r =0.501, P<0.05) and the recovery time of hs-CPR (r =0.496, P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 pneumonia patients with no fever, normal lymphocytes and hs-CRP had mild lesions on admission, and presented with more absorption and fewer pulmonary lesions on discharge. The negative conversion duration of viral nucleic acid and the recovery time of hs-CPR may be the indicator of the pneumonia resolution.

Combination of four clinical indicators predicts the severe/critical symptom of patients infected COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Despite the death rate of COVID-19 is less than 3%, the fatality rate of severe/critical cases is high, according to World Health Organization (WHO). Thus, screening the severe/critical cases before symptom occurs effectively saves medical resources. METHODS AND MATERIALS: In this study, all 336 cases of patients infected COVID-19 in Shanghai to March 12th, were retrospectively enrolled, and divided in to training and test datasets. In addition, 220 clinical and laboratory observations/records were also collected. Clinical indicators were associated with severe/critical symptoms were identified and a model for severe/critical symptom prediction was developed. RESULTS: Totally, 36 clinical indicators significantly associated with severe/critical symptom were identified. The clinical indicators are mainly thyroxine, immune related cells and products. Support Vector Machine (SVM) and optimized combination of age, GSH, CD3 ratio and total protein has a good performance in discriminating the mild and severe/critical cases. The area under receiving operating curve (AUROC) reached 0.9996 and 0.9757 in the training and testing dataset, respectively. When the using cut-off value as 0.0667, the recall rate was 93.33 % and 100 % in the training and testing datasets, separately. Cox multivariate regression and survival analyses revealed that the model significantly discriminated the severe/critical cases and used the information of the selected clinical indicators. CONCLUSION: The model was robust and effective in predicting the severe/critical COVID cases.

CT quantification of pneumonia lesions in early days predicts progression to severe illness in a cohort of COVID-19 patients.

Rationale: Some patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly develop respiratory failure or even die, underscoring the need for early identification of patients at elevated risk of severe illness. This study aims to quantify pneumonia lesions by computed tomography (CT) in the early days to predict progression to severe illness in a cohort of COVID-19 patients. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included confirmed COVID-19 patients. Three quantitative CT features of pneumonia lesions were automatically calculated using artificial intelligence algorithms, representing the percentages of ground-glass opacity volume (PGV), semi-consolidation volume (PSV), and consolidation volume (PCV) in both lungs. CT features, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE-II) score, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and d-dimer, on day 0 (hospital admission) and day 4, were collected to predict the occurrence of severe illness within a 28-day follow-up using both logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models. Results: We included 134 patients, of whom 19 (14.2%) developed any severe illness. CT features on day 0 and day 4, as well as their changes from day 0 to day 4, showed predictive capability. Changes in CT features from day 0 to day 4 performed the best in the prediction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87~0.99; C-index=0.88, 95% CI 0.81~0.95). The hazard ratios of PGV and PCV were 1.39 (95% CI 1.05~1.84, P=0.023) and 1.67 (95% CI 1.17~2.38, P=0.005), respectively. CT features, adjusted for age and gender, on day 4 and in terms of changes from day 0 to day 4 outperformed APACHE-II, NLR, and d-dimer. Conclusions: CT quantification of pneumonia lesions can early and non-invasively predict the progression to severe illness, providing a promising prognostic indicator for clinical management of COVID-19.

Emerging 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Pneumonia.

BackgroundThe chest CT findings of patients with 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia have not previously been described in detail.PurposeTo investigate the clinical, laboratory, and imaging findings of emerging 2019-nCoV pneumonia in humans.Materials and MethodsFifty-one patients (25 men and 26 women; age range 16-76 years) with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection by using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction underwent thin-section CT. The imaging findings, clinical data, and laboratory data were evaluated.ResultsFifty of 51 patients (98%) had a history of contact with individuals from the endemic center in Wuhan, China. Fever (49 of 51, 96%) and cough (24 of 51, 47%) were the most common symptoms. Most patients had a normal white blood cell count (37 of 51, 73%), neutrophil count (44 of 51, 86%), and either normal (17 of 51, 35%) or reduced (33 of 51, 65%) lymphocyte count. CT images showed pure ground-glass opacity (GGO) in 39 of 51 (77%) patients and GGO with reticular and/or interlobular septal thickening in 38 of 51 (75%) patients. GGO with consolidation was present in 30 of 51 (59%) patients, and pure consolidation was present in 28 of 51 (55%) patients. Forty-four of 51 (86%) patients had bilateral lung involvement, while 41 of 51 (80%) involved the posterior part of the lungs and 44 of 51 (86%) were peripheral. There were more consolidated lung lesions in patients 5 days or more from disease onset to CT scan versus 4 days or fewer (431 of 712 lesions vs 129 of 612 lesions; P < .001). Patients older than 50 years had more consolidated lung lesions than did those aged 50 years or younger (212 of 470 vs 198 of 854; P < .001). Follow-up CT in 13 patients showed improvement in seven (54%) patients and progression in four (31%) patients.ConclusionPatients with fever and/or cough and with conspicuous ground-glass opacity lesions in the peripheral and posterior lungs on CT images, combined with normal or decreased white blood cells and a history of epidemic exposure, are highly suspected of having 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia.© RSNA, 2020.